Silvia Beatriz Adoue * - A Escrita com o Corpo, ou a última metáfora de Rodolfo Walsh

 Foto Rodolfo Walsh, esposa, Lilia Ferreyra: domínio público

(Texto gentilmente cedido pela autora)

Su muerte sí, su muerte fue gloriosamente suya, y en ese orgullo me afirmo y soy quien renace de ella. [2]

Rodolfo Walsh

No es un arma guardada que rememora los disparos, sino un hacer violento, en los cuales la escritura agrede la molicie y espanta los oropeles Daniel Camels

Su cadáver estaba lleno de mundo. [4]

César Vallejo.

Na quinta-feira 24 de março de 1977, a um ano do golpe militar, Rodolfo Walsh passa a limpo a Carta abierta de um escritor a la Junta Militar (in: LINK, 1998) e um conto sobre um homem, Juan, que atravessa o Rio da Prata, excepcionalmente seco, a cavalo, enquanto o rio volta a crescer [5] .

Walsh não publicava ficção desde 1967, quando apareceu Un oscuro día de justicia [6] (1993), o último da série dos irlandeses, que ele pretendia continuar [7] . Mas o conto que agora tem entre mãos, Juan se iba por el río, havia sido pensado em 1967 como o primeiro capítulo de um romance, a “novela séria”, que queria escrever e que ele chamava de “novela geológica”, elaborada por camadas.

El primero de sus temas recoge una tradición oral que los prácticos y baqueanos del Río de la Plata transmiten de padres a hijos: es la historia de un hombre que, a fines del siglo XIX, consiguió atravesar el río a caballo, durante una bajante prodigiosa. [8] (in: LAFFORGUE, 2000: p. 50.)

Nessa retomada da ficção escolhe uma trama das muitas que vinha ruminando por anos, uma história de cavalos e de água. Seu pai, ele contou numa nota autobiográfica, falava com os cavalos, tinha sido morto por um, que o esmagou ao cair após enfiar a pata num buraco. Havia deixado outro cavalo para a família, chamado Mar Negro, que Walsh mesmo levou numa longa viagem para a terra de um parente que poderia ficar com ele (in: LAFFORGUE, 2000: p. 241 et FERREIRA, 1985).

Assina a Carta abierta de un escritor a la Junta Militar com seu nome, sobrenome e número de documento de identidade. Faz muito tempo que não publica seus escritos assinados. Desde que se enquadrou na organização Montoneros, e ainda antes, quando militava no jornalismo da resistência, sua assinatura sumia, indicando ora que o texto era resultado de uma elaboração coletiva, ora que era assumido pelo coletivo da organização. Mas em 1977, e depois da sua polêmica com a direção de Montoneros, começa a escrever o que ele chama de “cartas pessoais”, que circulam entre poucas pessoas e que ele assina. A polêmica de Walsh aponta para o sectarismo e o militarismo da organização, que vem se afastando da população que pretende dirigir. Propõe um “retorno” às massas, desmontando os vínculos de aparato e reconstruindo a confiança a partir de uma relação mais estreita com os não militantes. (in: BASCHETTI, 1994)

Chega a escrever três “cartas pessoais”: Carta a Vicky (in: BASCHETTI, 1994), Carta a mis amigos, (in: LAFFORGUE, 2000) e Carta de un escritor a la Junta Militar. Na que inicia a série, ele expõe seus sentimentos ao ser informado, pelo rádio, da morte da sua filha, também militante montonera. O assunto é a própria dor, que não pode ser contada senão recorrendo a voz de um desconhecido passageiro de trem suburbano, ouvida de relance. A dor, então, pode ser formulada e compartilhada. A segunda, é o relato da morte de Vicky reconstruído por Walsh a partir do testemunho de um soldado que participou do cerco à casa onde ela se encontrava. Na terceira, faz uma análise minuciosa da destruição do país operada pela Junta Militar, a um ano do golpe. A assinatura indica o compromisso pessoal e o texto convoca o leitor a divulgar a carta: tenga la satisfacción de un acto de libertad[9] . Assim retoma a proposta da sua polêmica com a direção de Montoneros, ao retornar à relação corpo-a-corpo, olho-no-olho, que tinha sido substituída pela hierarquia e pela concepção militarista que reduz a ação política a um automatismo. Walsh a transforma num ato de liberdade, não de um herói, mas de um homem ou de uma mulher que se atrevem a contradizer aquilo que os poderosos impõem. O que supõe uma decisão pessoal, carregada de subjetividade, que se aproxima a outras decisões pessoais e a outras subjetividades. Vozes que ele recolhe do quotidiano, do indivíduo que se achega a apresentar um testemunho.

Está morando desde o ano anterior numa casa em San Vicente, um subúrbio do grande Buenos Aires, com a sua companheira. Comprou a casa com a identidade de um professor de inglês aposentado. Fez uma horta, plantou alfaces. Na sexta-feira, 25 de março, disfarçado de aposentado, com chapéu de palha, botas e carregando uma pasta de plástico onde leva alguns exemplares da Carta... que acaba de escrever, dirige-se à estação de trem. Na bota, um revólver de pequeno calibre.

Walsh veste o disfarce do homem que alguma vez foi. Afinal, não podemos nos disfarçar senão daquilo que, de alguma maneira, também somos. Ele assume a aparência daquele que foi mais de vinte anos atrás, quando suas opiniões políticas não se traduziam em ação. Um homem que cuidava da sua casa e se interessava pelo xadrez e a literatura policial, um tradutor e editor de relatos de suspense. Em 1956, a voz de um soldado que havia se entrincheirado junto à janela da sua casa o tirou da rotina dessa vida tranqüila. O soldado, a quem o azar havia colocado do lado das tropas leais ao governo militar que tinha derrubado Perón, foi atingido por uma bala. Sentindo-se abandonado pelos colegas e agonizando, sussurrou como para si mesmo: No me dejen solo, hijos de puta [10] . A voz do soldado surpreendeu Walsh. Ele pensava que um soldado “costuma” morrer dizendo¡Viva la Patria! [11] , como os livros contam que morrem os soldados, mas o soldado não se sentia morrendo pela pátria, não tinha identidade espiritual com a causa que defendia com o corpo. O incômodo que lhe produziu aquela frase destoante levou Walsh a indagar, enquanto jornalista, pela sorte dos que morreram durante o levantamento. Para isso, teve de trocar de nome, abandonar a casa familiar, a rotina do trabalho e o xadrez com os amigos do bar. A voz do soldado o lançou para além dessa vida tranqüila, cada descobrimento o levava a um compromisso mais profundo. Num princípio, um compromisso pessoal na defesa da verdade que obtinha das testemunhas das injustiças, mas, depois, um compromisso militante para com todos os humilhados e ofendidos. Nisso consistiu para o autor escrever Operación Masacre (2000b), relato dos assassinatos de ‘56: um compromisso que parte da sua própria ação literária, o de recolher a voz desses humilhados e ofendidos. Não falar no seu nome, em representação, mas dar curso a sua enunciação. Assim inaugurou um registro estético e uma maneira de fazer jornalismo.

Modificou sua condição de escritor e sua escrita. Como escreve Walter Benjamin:

Agora, é claro que as opiniões importam muito, mas a melhor opinião nada aporta se não faz algo de útil com aqueles que a sustentam. A melhor tendência é falsa se antes não mostra a atitude a ser seguida. E essa atitude, o escritor apenas pode mostrá-la onde ele demonstra alguma coisa, ou seja escrevendo. (in: BACCEGA, 1998: p. 45)

Em 1965, publicou Esa mujer (in: WALSH, 2000a). Nesse conto, narrado em primeira pessoa, um intelectual visita um militar. O militar sabe onde se encontra o cadáver de Eva Perón, seqüestrado pelas Forças Armadas. O intelectual quer o cadáver. É a forma que ele encontra de ir ao povo, se unir à sua indignação e não mais estar sozinho.

Algún día (pienso en momentos de ira) iré a buscarla. Ella no significa nada para mí, y sin embargo iré tras el misterio de su muerte, detrás de sus restos que se pudren lentamente en algún remoto cementerio. Si la encuentro, frescas altas olas de cólera, miedo y frustrado amor se alzarán, poderosas vengativas olas, y por un momento ya no me sentiré solo, ya no me sentiré como una arrastrada, amarga, olvidada sombra [12] . (in: WALSH, 2000a)

O cadáver escamoteado é metáfora da verdade. Um corpo no lugar de uma escrita. Mas o corpo também escreve. O conto é relato de um acontecimento real, ao qual a escrita lhe dá sentido. Walsh esteve mesmo na casa do militar e negociou com ele. Mas é no conto onde ele estabelece as suas lealdades e explica seus motivos: escrita sobre escrita, ação e registro, quando o registro também é ação e a ação se articula como uma escrita, suporte que é de metáforas poderosas.

Mas isso foi há muito tempo. Já estamos no caminho para a estação e Walsh encontra com o dono da imobiliária que lhe vendeu a casa, quem lhe entrega a escritura. Ele a guarda na pasta de plástico. Não dá tempo para retornar e deixar os papéis na sua casa, os horários não lhe permitem esse luxo.

Walsh e sua mulher pegam o trem e descem na estação Constitución, na capital. Ali despedem-se: ele tem um encontro. O encontro está “envenenado”. Um companheiro o entregou na mesa de tortura. O escritor caminha pela rua San Juan, em direção a Entre Rios. Em Sarandí, um grupo de policiais e marinhos o emboscam. Walsh responde ao fogo com o revólver calibre 22 que guarda na sua bota. O pequeno calibre da sua arma não é páreo para o armamento dos marinhos e policiais, mas serve para alguma coisa: está decidido a não se deixar prender vivo. Como fez sua filha, em setembro do ano anterior, escolhe não se entregar.

Antes poderia ter saído do país, o que não teria sido desonroso. Mas preferiu permanecer e trabalhar na ANCLA, a Agência de Notícias Clandestina, desde onde fazia, junto com sua equipe, tarefas de informação e contrainformação. E na Cadena de Notícias, rede de circulação de notícias de caráter horizontal. Prefere escrever as “cartas pessoais” e retomar a ficção com Juan se iba por el río. O seu jeito de ir pelo rio é o de se internar mais e mais no território do seu país, como tinha feito com seu pai, na sua infância, atravessando a cavalo as lacunas do Sul da província de Buenos Aires (FERREIRA, 1985).

Talvez já nem esteja enxergando direito, continua atirando até que acabam as balas. E talvez pense nas cartas ou tenha lembrado dos papéis da casa que carrega na pasta. Também é possível que lembre de Vicky nessa hora. Mas também é provável que esteja pensando num último galope desatado, pelo leito de um rio subitamente convertido numa pampa sem limites.

Depois, é visto mal ferido por prisioneiros na Escuela de Mecánica da Armada, junto a uma grande quantidade de papéis roubados da sua casa de San Vicente, cujo endereço é descoberto pelos papéis da imobiliária que leva na sua pasta. Somem com seu corpo e com os seus escritos inéditos. Ambos perigosos, ambos juntos, indissoluvelmente unidos, para sempre.

---

[1] Este trabalho é subproduto de um estudo mais extenso, em andamento, sobre Rodolfo Walsh: RODOLFO WALSH, el criptógrafo –Literatura y realidad.

[2] Tradução da autora do artigo: Sua morte sim, sua morte foi gloriosamente sua, seguro-me nesse orgulho e sou quem renace dela. Walsh refere-se ao sentido da morte da sua filha, após relata-la aos seus amigos (Carta a mis amigos in: BASCHETTI,  1994: p. 191).

[3] Tradução da autora do artigo: Não é uma arma guardada que lembra os tiros, mas um fazer violento, nos quais a escrita agride a molície e espanta os enfeites. (CAMELS, 2001).

[4] Tradução da autora do artigo: Seu cadáver estava cheio de mundo.

[5] O original e único exemplar deste conto permanece seqüestrado pelos militares que vasculharam a sua casa em San Vicente em 25 de março de 1977.

[6] O publicou na revista Adán, uma revista “masculina”, entre fotos e matérias mais ou menos eróticas.

[7] Em entrevista a Piglia, em 1967, fala sobre as suas idéias para continuar a série (in: PIGLIA, 1993).

[8] Tradução da autora do artigo: O primeiro dos seus temas recolhe a tradição oral que os práticos e conhecedores do Rio de la Plata transmitem de pai para filho: é a história de um homem que, no final do século XIX, conseguiu atravessar o rio a cavalo durante uma grande decida do nível da água.

[9] Tradução da autora do artigo: tenha a satisfação de um ato de liberdade.

[10] Tradução da autora do artigo: Não me deixem sozinho, filhos da puta.

[11] Tradução da autora do artigo: Viva a Pátria!

[12] Tradução da autora do artigo: Algum dia (penso em momentos de ira) irei procurar-la. Ela nada significa para mim,porém irei atrás do mistério da sua morte, atrás dos seus restos que apodrecem lentamente nalgum remoto cemitério. Se a encontrar, frescas altas ondas de cólera, medo e frustrado amor levantarão-se, poderosas vingativas ondas, e por um momento já não me sentirei só, já não me sentirei como uma arrastada, amargurada, esquecida sombra.

Silvia Beatriz Adoue, é pedagoga, historiadora e ensaista argentina, há 30 anos radicada no Brasil. Foi metalúrgica, gráfica e professora primária em Grand Bourg (Provincia de Buenos Aires). Licenciada em Matemática pela USP, fez Mestrado em Integração da América Latina no PROLAM/USP e doutorou-se em Letras pela FFLCH/USP com a Tese, “Rodolfo Walsh, o criptógrafo-relações entre escrita e ação política na obra de Rodolfo Walsh”. Leciona na Escola Nacional Florestan Fernandes do MST.

Rodolfo Walsh - Guevara

Buenos Aires, octubre de 1967. ¿Por quién doblan las campanas? Doblan por nosotros. Me resulta imposible pensar en Guevara, desde esta lúgubre primavera de Buenos Aires, sin pensar en Hemingway, en Camilo, en Masetti, en Fabricio Ojeda, en toda esa maravillosa gente que era La Habana o pasaba por La Habana en el 59 y el 60. La nostalgia se codifica en un rosario de muertos y da un poco de vergüenza estar aquí sentado frente a una máquina de escribir, aun sabiendo que eso también es una especie de fatalidad aun si uno pudiera consolarse con la idea de que es una fatalidad que sirve para algo. Lo veo a Camilo, una mañana de domingo, volando bajo en un helicóptero sobre la playa de Coney Island, asomándose muerto de risa y la muchedumbre que gozaba con él desde abajo. Lo oigo al viejo Hemingway, en el aeropuerto de Rancho Boyeros, decir esas palabras penúltimas: "Vamos a ganar, nosotros los cubanos vamos a ganar". Y ante mi sorpresa: "I’m not a yankee, you know". Interminablemente veo a Masetti en las madrugadas de Prensa Latina, cuando ya se tomaba mate y se escuchaba unos tangos, pero el asunto que volvía era el de esa revolución tan necesaria, aunque hoy se presenta tan dura, tan vestida con la sangre de la gente que uno admirado simplemente quiso. Nunca sabíamos en Prensa Latina, cuándo iba a venir el Che, simplemente caía sin anunciarse, y la única señal de su presencia en el edificio eran dos guajiritos con el glorioso uniforme de la sierra, uno se estacionaba junto al ascensor, otro ante la oficina de Masetti, metralleta al brazo. No sé exactamente por qué daban la impresión de que se harían matar por Guevara, y cuando eso ocurriera no sería fácil. Muchos tuvieron más suerte que yo, conversaron largamente con Guevara. Aunque no era imposible ni siquiera difícil yo me limite a escucharlo, dos o tres veces, cuando hablaba con Masetti. Había preguntas por hacer pero no daban ganas de interrumpir o quizá las preguntas quedaban contestadas antes de que uno las hiciera. Sentía lo que él cuenta que sintió al ver por única vez a Frank País: sólo podría precisar en este momento que sus ojos mostraban enseguida el hombre poseído por una causa y que ese hombre era un ser superior. Yo leía sus artículos en Verde Olivo, lo escuchaba por TV: Parecía suficiente, porque Che Cuevara era un   hombre sin desdoblamiento. Sus escritos hablaban con su voz, y su voz era la misma en el papel o entre dos mates en aquella oficina del Retiro Médico. Creo que los habaneros tardaron un poco en acostumbrarse a él, su humor frío y seco, tan porteño, debía caerles como un chubasco. Cuando lo entendieron, era uno de los hombres más queridos de Cuba. De aquel humor se hacia la primera víctima. Que yo recuerde, ningún jefe de ejército, ningún general, ningún héroe se ha descrito a sí mismo huyendo en dos oportunidades. Del combate de Bueycito, donde se le trabo la ametralladora frente a un soldado enemigo que lo tiroteaba desde cerca, dice: "mi participación en aquel combate fue escasa y nada heroica, pues los pocos tiros los enfrenté con la parte posterior del cuerpo". Y refiriéndose a la sorpresa de Altos de Espinosa: "no hice nada más que una retirada estratégica a toda velocidad en aquel encuentro". Exageraba él estas cosas, cuando todos sabían que acaba de recordar Fidel, que lo difícil era sacarlo del lugar donde hubiera más peligro. Dominaba su vanidad como el asma. En esa renuncia a las últimas pasiones, estaba el germen del hombre nuevo que hablaba. Guevara no se proponía como un héroe: en todo caso, podía ser un héroe a la altura de todos. Pero esto, claro, no era cierto para los demás. Su altura era anonadante: resulta más fácil a veces desistir que seguirlo, y lo mismo ocurría con Fidel y la gente de la Sierra. Esta exigencia podía ponernos en crisis, y esa crisis tiene ahora su forma definitiva, tras los episodios de Bolivia. Dicho más simplemente: nos cuesta a muchos eludir la vergüenza, no de estar vivos porque no es el deseo de la muerte, es su contrario, la fuerza de la revolución, sino de que Guevara haya muerto con tan pocos alrededor. Por supuesto, no sabíamos, oficialmente no sabíamos nada, pero algunos sospechábamos, temíamos. Fuimos lentos, ¿culpables? Inútil ya discutir la cosa, pero ese sentimiento que digo está, al menos para mí y tal vez sea un nuevo punto de partida. El agente de la CIA que según la agencia Reuter codeó y panceó a cien periodistas que en Valle Grande pretendían ver el cadáver, dijo una frase en inglés: "awright, get the hell out of here". Esta frase con su sello, su impronta, su marca criminal, queda propuesta para la historia. Y su necesaria réplica: alguien tarde o temprano se irá al carajo de este continente. No serán los que nacieron en él. No será la memoria del Che. Que ahora está desparramado en cien ciudades entregado al camino de quienes no lo conocieron. El presente texto fue extraído de una recopilación de artículos sobre el Che Guevara publicado por la Casa de las Américas en 1986.

Guerra contra o Euro (VII) - Agências de notação, uma quadrilha americana

Fear of the Executioners

The Sinister Power of the Rating Agencies

By Michaela Schiessl, Christoph Schult and Thomas Schulz

As the debt crisis worsens, governments fear the rating agencies, which have the power of life and death over whole economies. The Big Three helped to cause the 2008 financial crisis and are now accused of worsening the euro zone's woes. But a look behind the scenes shows that there are few alternatives to the mighty agencies.


The man who will decide on the financial health of entire countries this summer wears dark suits and square wire-rimmed glasses. He has graying hair, but his face is youthful. He speaks in a sonorous baritone tinged with a southern German accent. Yes, this ratings guru is from Germany.

His name is Moritz Kraemer and he makes a friendly and relaxed impression. But when his critics talk about Kraemer's work, they characterize him as "highly dangerous" and a "firebrand," one of those murderous men "who destabilize all of Europe." His powerful opponents include the German chancellor, the president of the European Commission and the French head of state, to name just a few.

Kraemer is the head of the European sovereign credit ratings unit at Standard & Poor's. Together with his colleagues at the rating agency, he has helped ensure that Greek government bonds are now seen as "junk" and those from Portugal and Ireland are rated only slightly better. Being saddled with such a low rating makes it far more difficult for these countries to take out additional loans.


Kraemer and his team have repeatedly downgraded Greece's credit rating over the past two years -- and each step down the rating ladder has escalated the European debt crisis. "That was really rough," Kraemer admits in a surprisingly calm manner, "but we're simply obligated to promptly inform investors of our opinion of the risks involved." Kraemer assesses the creditworthiness of countries and addresses the question of how likely it is that they will become insolvent. Working with his colleagues, he takes hundreds of pieces of data, combines this with people's views and opinions, and finally distills this to a rating. The highest rating, AAA, has become the ultimate seal of approval. From there it goes downhill over nearly two dozen rungs to D, for default. Germany is rated AAA. Greece is hovering just above D.


Repercussions for Whole Continents


Kraemer's job is normally a rather low-profile position that is only important for bond dealers, central bankers and other financial professionals. But these are no ordinary times. The currency market is teetering on the brink of disaster and suddenly everything Kraemer does has repercussions for entire countries -- and even continents.


Ever since he and his colleagues downgraded the US government's AAA sovereign credit rating on the Friday before last, shockwaves have been reverberating around the globe. Stock markets are plunging and politicians are dashing from one crisis summit to the next. When the rating agencies give the thumbs-down, the markets are obliged to follow. Indeed, most investors have no choice but to rely on the assessments of rating agencies. Their role is enshrined in countless statutes and regulations stating that institutions such as banks, insurance companies and pension funds may only invest in companies, financial securities and government bonds that are classified as practically risk-free. If the rating falls, they are forced to sell.


This gives enormous power to this tiny sector. The agencies' verdict decides whether, and at what price, a country can raise money on the capital markets -- and if the crisis will continue to escalate. If a country is downgraded, this price rises, which exacerbates its plight -- which could in turn lead to the next downgrading.


The governments of the euro zone, which are struggling to find a way out of the crisis, are forced to watch helplessly from the sidelines as the rating agencies make life more difficult for them. When they moved to have private-sector creditors shoulder part of the burden of a new aid package for Greece, the rating agencies threatened to give Greece a "default" rating, which would have caused renewed turmoil in the markets. It took intense negotiations to hammer out a compromise.


To make matters worse, all of this power lies largely in the hands of three private companies that have their headquarters in the US: Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's and Fitch (which has dual headquarters in New York and London). They form the infernal trio of the financial world.
Is it acceptable for so much power to be concentrated in private companies whose objective is not a stable financial system, but their own profit? Or is this precisely what global public finances need: an independent oversight that forces governments to tighten their belts and keep their budgets in order? Americans are only beginning to truly ask these questions now. The debate has been raging in Europe for months, however. European politicians across the political spectrum have harshly condemned the agencies, arguing that they are a threat to the global financial system and that they fuel the bloodletting on the markets.


These critics contend that in the run-up to the 2008 crash, the agencies helped spark the crisis by giving far too lenient ratings to American mortgage-backed securities. Now, they say that the agencies are being too harsh -- and are thus again responsible for widespread misery.


'You Need to Have a Thick Skin'


What effect does this have on Kraemer? Can he still sleep at night? And when he sees protests and street battles in Greece and Spain, does he feel partly responsible?
"No," says Kraemer. "You need to have a thick skin in that respect. Countries don't have to trim their budgets for our sake, but because they have accumulated too many debts."
Kraemer's office is located on the 27th floor of the Frankfurt Main Tower. The view extends all the way to the Taunus mountain range, but Kraemer is rarely here. Instead, he spends much of his time traveling around the world. "At least once a year we send a team to every country that is rated by S&P," he explains.


Many doors are opened for Kraemer, right up to the heads of government: "Ministers brief us on policy guidelines." He says that this dialogue with the governments is part of the rating process. "We of course listen to what they have to say -- anything else would be unreasonable."
At the same time, he adds, the rating agency doesn't rely too much on the plans and data presented during these visits. "We make our own analytical decisions."


'There Were No Calculation Errors'


That's hardly surprising. After all, many official figures are questionable. It's been common knowledge for some time that Greece's deficit figures were unrealistic. But how do you rate a country in such cases? "If the flow of information is too slow, we don't pull a rating out of a hat," says Kraemer, explaining that S&P withdrew its rating for Libya for this very reason. In the case of Greece, he adds, "there was, in our opinion, sufficient information available for an assessment."

Apparently, the information didn't shed a positive light on the country: In only 500 days, S&P downgraded its rating of Greece by seven notches. "The situation in Greece deteriorated much faster and more dramatically than was initially apparent," says Kraemer. "From today's perspective, though, no one would say that these steps were exaggerated."
Generally speaking, Kraemer also sees very few problems with the work of his agency -- not even with the fact that S&P initially apparently misinterpreted the US federal deficit. When analysts decided to lower the long-term sovereign credit rating for the first time from AAA to AA+, the US Treasury immediately sounded the alarm and contended that S&P had made a $2 trillion (€1.4 trillion) error in its calculations of the country's future debt. The agency asked for a few hours to think it over. It then confirmed the downgrade, but the reason had suddenly changed. Now, instead of highlighting its financial calculations, the agency cast doubt on the country's political leadership.


"There were no calculation errors," Kraemer says. "We only used an alternative scenario to examine the anticipated growth in expenditure." The reaction from politicians is not surprising, he says: "If there is bad news, they often first try to play it down and discredit the analysis." The US Treasury sees things differently: "They (S&P) have handled themselves very poorly and they've shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic US fiscal budget math," said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.


Reproduzido de DER SPIEGEL, 16/08;2011
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,780304,00.html

Guerra contra o Euro (VI) - A guerra psicológica ilustrada

US covert dirty war

Ilustrações: domínio público

Guerra contra o Euro (V) - Direita e mídia norte-americana

 

Ilustrações: domínio público

The truth about so called Euro Debt Crisis and 
why Euro is still beating the pants off US Dollar

Doubtless you have been reading and/or hearing the near non-stop doom & gloom reporting from US & UK Media about "Euro Debt Crisis", and if you are like most people you are wondering what the hek does this mean! And I am not just referring to you as if you are an American or a Canadian etc. as to wondering what the hek does all this talk of "Euro Debt Crisis" that is coming non-stop from US/UK Media means, but even if you are a European you are wondering the same question. For if you are in a typical European city and you ask a typical European what do you know or think of this non-stop doom & gloom coming from US & UK Media about "Euro Debt Crisis", their answer would be either what "Euro Debt Crisis are you talking about" or "I really do not know what they are talking about" or "It has no effect on me so I dont really pay any attention to it" etc. indication that the "Euro Debt Crisis" is really more of a creation of US & UK Media than reality in Europe, much as the US & UK Media in 2002 in total non-stop brain-washing unison tried to sell to the World of the need for War in Iraq for one made up reason after another, they are now engaged in a similar campaign against Euro. Now there is some truth to this so called "Euro Debt Crisis", but it is not at all what the right-wing fear-mongering Media has been reporting, this article will explain what is really going on in this regard and most likely what will happen to address it and what all this means for average investor.

The truth about so called "Euro Debt Crisis"

So "Euro Debt Crisis" is mainly non-sense and really just the continuation of the Con Job of Republicans, specifically the right wing Media/Cabal behind them, so that they can then say:


"US is next if we do not stop Government spending or if 
we adopt European style social services such as universal 
socialized health care"

However there is some truth to "Euro Debt Crisis", but it is not at all what the
US (right-wing Media) is telling you. 1st in summary the causes of this
"Euro Debt Crisis" are:

1- Near collapse of US economy in 2008, reduced growth world wide and for those
smaller economies that were dependent on growth to service their Bond interest payments, these payments became harder to make.

2- Euro being a very strong currency has put a straight jacket on the weaker economies, such as Greece, who cannot devalue their own currencies, and thus grow their way out of their Bond payments this way.

So "Euro Debt Crisis" is more a problem of Euro being a currency of a Union that is not backed by a single Fiscal policy.

Euro is a deeply flawed currency but still beating the pants off US Dollar!

So Amongst all doom reporting from US Media, about "Euro Debt crisis" there is one truth:

Euro is a deeply flawed currency.

Because Euro is currency of a monetary Union with no Fiscal Union. This means
countries that use Euro have different Tax rates, Bond rates, etc. serious lack of monetary Union. This is really crazy when you think about, this means that for example Greece would have to borrow at 8% whereas Germany can issue Bonds at 2%, or Greece has 30% Tax on income over 250K, whereas Germany has 50% and collects it.

With above FACT stated, here is another FACT, a deeply flawed currency Euro is beating US Dollar, given that Euro has GAINED a MIGHTY % against US$ since its introduction in 2000 at 1 to 1 to US$. This is really BEST proof of the fundamental problems of US economy, which are:

1- Lack of something as essential as universal socialized health care, something that would give health care to all Americans while cut health care costs by 50%

2- Our Taxes wasted on One War after another and a Gargantuan Military

3- Plus lack of other social services, such as the fact that in Germany, France, etc. European country you can go to college pretty much for free, free for the Taxes that you pay through your life, whereas same college education in US will cost you an INSANE amount of $100,000 and more, thus saddling you with Debt for years to come even if you get a good Job and God help you if you do not, thus retarding your economic growth and enjoyment of life.

So just think how screwed up USA is, that a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, the currency of a Union that supposedly is having a "Debt Crisis", is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.

This is really the best indication of how fundamentally screwed up USA has been
and continues to be. After all how screwed up can you be that it is 2012 and US does not have something as essential for the functioning of a Modern economy as universal socialized health care (NHS), something that the ENTIRE developed World has, something that the Conservative parties, repeat the Conservative parties, in UK, Canada, Israel, etc. 100% support. And why Conservative parties in entire developed World are 100% for their NHS, it is because in countries that have not-for-profit Government run NHS, health care is taking on average 9% of GDP while in US with Wall Street run for profit health care, 50Mill+ have NO health care, 2Mill+ go bankrupt each year due to health care costs, and health care is taking a DEFICIT busting 18% of GDP.

It gets worst for USA

So here is what tells the World that even a currency as flawed as Euro is better than US Dollar. Because one major party in US, the Republicans are such
lunatics, to actually oppose such sensible socialized services as universal socialized health care (NHS), or socialized college education, etc. as they have in UK, Canada, Israel, Germany, France, Japan, China, etc.

And the other party, although talked about it, they actually never even proposed NHS, set aside pass NHS. And vast part of US Media are such enemy of American people, that they report non-stop lies and lies in opposing NHS and other necessary socialized services, such as they print in their US version, but not their European or Canadian versions, that European, Canadian, etc. are dying waiting in line to get health care because of their socialized health care. Which of course as a European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. citizen with NHS in your country you know to be a total lie and that is again why US Media outlets do not write the same in their European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. versions.

How about S&P downgrades Euro banks

No one in Europe gives a SQUAT anymore about what US firms or Media says. After all a country that is so miserable, because it is mislead by its Media, to have as one of its main parties the Republican lunatics, and as its main Media sources such lying right-wing machines as Talkradio, Fox news, Wall Street Journal, which party and so called News sources are about one Con Job after another, who for example say to anything that is for benefit the American people at the expense of the Wall Street gang, such as having universal socialized health care (NHS) so that all Americans will have health care while health care would cost 50% LESS: "Socialist Socialism Socialist Socialism" when one of their favorite organizations is the US Military which is a 100% Socialized entity,
then a country this miserable, this mislead by its most powerful institutions, has nothing to say that anyone cares about.

And again that is why a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.

What about Greece going bankrupt?

1st, If you were in Greece now you will see that all this doom & gloom talk about Greece is mainly non-sense. As typical restaurants, clubs, beaches, etc. are packed until wee hours of the morning, etc. indication of how Greek are having a great life. So does Greece have some problem, yes they do and it is what Greek called "fakeleki", which basically means a systemic problem of bribing under table, you could actually think of it as rampant capitalism.

So these non-stop negative reporting about Greece "debt crisis.." by US Media is meant to enable the Republican lunatics to then say, See:
"US is next if we do not stop Government spending..."
or
"Socialism only works until you run out of other people's money to squander..."

etc. Psycho babble

Demonstrating yet again the Con Job Republicans & right-wing Media are playing on American people, FOR:

1- Germany, Norway, etc. European countries whom have lil Debt and much LOWER Un-Employment, compared to US, have much more of a "Socialism" based economies than Greece.

2- In fact main reason behind Greece's debt is that it has not been enough of a "Socialism" based country as other European countries are. To be exact this means that Greece has NOT been collecting Taxes as other European countries do. Although there are other problems specific to Greece, they range from what they call "Fakeleki" to Euro being too strong compared to competing tourist destinations such as Turkey or Bulgaria.

All of which points you can see proven by Euro being a MUCH More valuable than US Dollar. Or by the FACT that while most US Auto makers went bankrupt NOT 1 European Auto maker went bankrupt, etc. Or by the fact that when the real Rich in US, such as Murdoch of Fixed news & Wall Street Journal (LIES), wants to buy a Vila or vacation he goes to Europe and would not be caught dead in US States that Vote Republicans such as Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc.

More about what is really going on in Greece and why European economies will continue to MUCH better than US: http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=39732

What about EU leaders failed December meeting?

Once EU leaders, less UK, decide they are going to finally address the deeply flawed aspects of Euro, which is that it is a currency of a Union that does not have the same fiscal policy, which is insane to put it mildly. After all how in Gods name are the Greek to have same currency as Germany when they have to issue Bonds at 8% to finance their operation when Germany can issue Bonds at 2%! So once EU leaders agree to create a fiscal Union, much like US has, then the deep flaws of the EU will be removed and only thing that will remain are the fundamental problems of US economy, which problems Republican champion and Obama Admin did not address at all!

So here is KILLER FACT you need to realize, should EU address the deep flaws of Euro, then US Dollar will be TOAST vs Euro. That is Euro has gained a MIGHTY % against US$ with its current deep flaws, imagine what will happen after these flaws are addressed! You could then see Eur/USD at 2 which for example means Gas costing Americans $6 per Gallon.

Wont UK block the EU Fiscal Union?

Europeans for long have realized that certain elements in UK wants the EU project to fail, or hobble along, so more and more what UK says matters less and less to the EU leaders. In fact the Veto of Dave Cameron, in late Dec 2011 of the steps toward EU Fiscal Union, made the EU leaders to realize that goals of UK still lay in making sure that a true European Union does not come into play, which Union as per the dream of Napoleon and others in Europe, will in time render UK as the back water of Europe. After all, EU economy is TEN times the size of UK economy.

But in fact, what is more likely, is that UK in time, either under Cameron that vetoed the last EU Fiscal Union proposal, or under a new leader, will support the EU Fiscal Union proposal because more and more UK leaders realize that they cannot anchor their economic future to US given the fact that US is suffering from Republican lunatics and the right-wing Media/Cabal that makes them possible, and as a result US has fundamental problems, with no sign that these problems will be fixed soon.

If we have Universal Nationalized health care we will go bankrupt like Europeans

One of most amazing, but typical, of the Republican and right-wing Media Con Job about the so called "Euro Debt crisis" is that then they will then say, see:

If we have Universal Nationalized health care (NHS)
 like Europeans we will go bankrupt like Europeans"

The answer to which amazing non-sense is:

1- It is not just the Europeans that have NHS, the entire developed World has NHS, from Canada, to Japan, to Australia, including their beloved Israel.

2- If Europeans were not operating health care on Socialized basis, aka NHS, then their Debt would be much higher. Given the fact that in countries that have NHS, health care is taking on avg about 9% of GDP, whereas in US with no NHS and instead Wall Street run health care, where an astonishing 50Mill+ have NO health care, health care is taking a DEFICIT BUSTING 18% of GDP. So because Europeans have NHS, their spending on health care is reduced by $1-Trillion per year. And that is one of reasons why even though Euro is a deeply flawed currency, it is still beating the US Dollar.

So what will happen?

For Europeans to address the so called "Euro Debt crisis", which again means that certain weaker European countries cannot be in Euro and at the same time pay much higher interest rates on their Bonds than others. there are a few solutions:

1- Euro needs to drop much in value against US Dollar and other major currencies, so that the weaker economies like Greece can than compete against surrounding countries such as Turkey which have much lower priced currencies to Euro.

2- EU members need to create a much tighter fiscal Union, they need to create something tantamount to US Federal Reserve and a central Taxing authority, so that that the Taxes in Greece are same as in Germany and paid to a central authority. Which central authority, in ECB, then would issue and back a Euro Bond so that all EU members would have the same interest rates.

But what you can bet on, is that since EU Governments work for their people (aka main street), that they will make the right decision and will come out even stronger.

What is the worst that can happen?

As further indication of what a rightwing fear-mongering Media, US Media is consider that 1000s of stories have appearing in US Media asking: "What is the worst that can happen" with the Euro Debt crisis! In regard to this so called question:

1st, Again "Euro Debt crisis" simply means high Bond rates for certain weaker EU eoconomies. The worst of which that can happen is that these countries will default on their Bond payments, which means (mostly) rich Bankers will get a hair cut on their Bonds. So just as when Argentina defaulted on its debt meant squat for avg person and in fact as a result of this default Argentine economy did great a few years later, same will happen in EU should Greece default on their Bonds.

2nd, Because Europeans Governments are run by their people for their people (aka Main Street) then EU will do the right thing to avoid the worst and result in the best, contrast to US where Government is run by the rightwing Cabal via their puppet Republicans and many Dems too and thus the worst indeed keeps happening.

So here is what you can Bank ON:

US Dollar & economy will NEVER EVER be as valuable as Euro since Europeans are not suffering from Republican lunatics, HOAX Democrats and above all a right-wing Media/Cabal armed with 100s of Billions of Dollars waging War on them, as this Cabal is waging war on American people.

As a result Europeans have fundamental advantages over US, which simply means Europeans get much more value for their Taxes, due to operating a sensibly more of their economy on Socialized basis and not just Military, Police, etc. on Socialized basis as in US. Such as for example ALL Europeans, like all other developed nations, have Universal health care (NHS) as a result of which while ALL Europeans have health care, they spend 50% LESS, NOT MORE, LESS, on health care than US which does not have something as necessary as socialized health care! And also Europeans can go to college for nearly FREE, for Taxes they pay, as a result of which core of Europe (aka Middle class) is getting richer while core of US is getting poorer.


Reproduzido de The Real News Post http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=55156&PHPSESSID=cbjvt1k9lvlgg5pjqd7hv3mh15

Guerra contra o Euro (IV) - Relatório secreto da Goldman Sachs

Eurozone Collapse And How To Profit From It

Michele Lin   

8 September 2011

On the 16^th of August, Goldman Sachs released a report, State of the Markets – Long and Short Risk Strategies, that is currently making its way around the Internet. Originally intended as a private report for its institutional clients – hedge funds that is – a copy was leaked to the Wall Street Journal who was also the first media outlet to break the news.

Though the international mainstream media has been largely silent, the Goldman report has been causing quite a stir with the online community.

The author, Alan Brazil, a key Goldman strategist who sits on the firm’s trading desk, made three major calls about the state of global markets.

One, that China’s growth is unsustainable, and secondly, the U.S. economy is still languishing and small businesses that have traditionally been the key drivers of jobcreation were still fighting to stay afloat. Finally, Mr. Brazil declares that European bank funding requirements may be substantial compared to their sovereign capacity, estimating that close to US$1 trillion in capital may be needed to shore up European banks.

In Mr. Brazil’s pessimistic report, he also provides various charts and figures, detailing the numbers surrounding European financial institutions and expounds upon the depth of the problems in Europe, the U.S. and China. In particular, he spells out in detail the borrowing by 77 European financial institutions, identifying some that are highly leveraged.

Related: 

Diseased and Dangerous – The US and Europe’s Grand Debacle: Joseph Stiglitz

Related: 

Europocalypse - Are The Days of The Eurozone Numbered?: Nouriel Roubini

Yet, such gloom and doom reports are nothing the markets have not heard of. The financial markets have been moving erratically, reacting sharply each time a negative data report is released – a key sign that investors are paranoid, jittery and staring out into an uncertain future for the world economy.

Economists and governments have also been sounding out the same worries for quite some time.

So why is there so much chatter surrounding the latest report by Goldman Sachs?

To be fair, Goldman Sachs does not have the best track record in methods of profiteering. In 2009, theRolling Stone magazine published an extensive and scathing article about Goldman Sachs, The Great American Bubble Machine, documenting the numerous instances and ways in which Goldman manipulated markets for their own corporate gains. 

“From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they’re about to do it again.”

“If American is now circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain.”

“Goldman scammed housing investors by betting against its own crappy mortgages.”

“Goldman turned a sleepy oil market into a giant betting parlor – spiking prices at the pump. Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone July 9^th, 2009

In the aforementioned report by Goldman, Mr. Brazil suggests ideas for trading on the downward analysis; A fancy option play the offers a way to take a bearish bet through an index of insurance contracts on the credit of European financial stocks. 

“Goldman sometimes took the bearish end of such trades even as it was selling the bullish end to clients.” The Wall Street Journal,September 1, 2011

Perhaps, it is because the painful reminiscences from the 2008/09 financial crisis are still deeply etched in the memories of many, causing the burst of dissonance within the online community.

However, there is perhaps a worthy takeaway from this contentious Goldman report.

Moving beyond the fuss, a pertinent question to ask is: Given the position Goldman Sachs is advocating, should we prepare for the euro’s breakup?

Many have been quick to jump into the popular rhetoric surrounding the possibility of a euro breakup. But such arguments often miscalculate the consequences and the political, social, and economic costs involved. Many who advocate a euro breakup also fail to account for the legality of such propositions. 

Constitutionally, the Treaty of Lisbon addresses the issue of withdrawal by a European Union (hereafter, EU) Member State in its Article 50. 

Article 50 explicitly states that a member state is able to negotiate an exit from the EU, though it fails to provide details about execution. Most importantly, however, Article 50 provides a legal framework for a Member to leave the EU, but not to leave the European Monetary Union (hereafter, EMU). 

An appropriate remedy here would require an amendment of The Treaty of Maastricht. Yet, constitutional changes governing the EU and the EMU calls for unanimous consent from all 27 EU Member States.

Assuming all legal obstacles were out of the way, there is also a need to account for the high costs involved should the euro breakup. 

Just two days ago, UBS published a paper on the euro, and quantified the economic costs at stake should a country like Germany leave the Euro:

“Were a stronger country such as Germany leave the euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalization of the banking and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around €6,000 to €8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of €3,500 to €4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over €1,000 per person, in a single hit.”

UBS, 6^th September 2011

The same report goes on to say that “the economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a breakup. Fragmentation of the euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that also no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government.



The problem with the euro is that it was promoted (to the general public) as an instrument towards foreign exchange integration. What was not acknowledged initially was the immense difficulty in achieving fiscal integration, or at least fiscal coordination, between member countries with distinctly different economic repertoires.

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to introduce that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created - ”Romano Prodi.

While many may not like what the Goldman Sachs report had to say, it is nevertheless time to rethink the outlook for the euro and the European Monetary Union.

Related: 

Europe’s Last Hope – Will Germany Step Up? : George Soros

Related: 

Eurozone Divorce Imminent: Nouriel Roubini

Reproduzido de

http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/goldman-sachs-secret-report-eurozone-collapse-and-how-to-profit/08-09.html