US covert dirty war
Ilustrações: domínio público
15 janeiro 2012
Guerra contra o Euro (V) - Direita e mídia norte-americana
Ilustrações: domínio público
why Euro is still beating the pants off US Dollar
Doubtless you have been reading and/or hearing the near non-stop doom & gloom reporting from US & UK Media about "Euro Debt Crisis", and if you are like most people you are wondering what the hek does this mean! And I am not just referring to you as if you are an American or a Canadian etc. as to wondering what the hek does all this talk of "Euro Debt Crisis" that is coming non-stop from US/UK Media means, but even if you are a European you are wondering the same question. For if you are in a typical European city and you ask a typical European what do you know or think of this non-stop doom & gloom coming from US & UK Media about "Euro Debt Crisis", their answer would be either what "Euro Debt Crisis are you talking about" or "I really do not know what they are talking about" or "It has no effect on me so I dont really pay any attention to it" etc. indication that the "Euro Debt Crisis" is really more of a creation of US & UK Media than reality in Europe, much as the US & UK Media in 2002 in total non-stop brain-washing unison tried to sell to the World of the need for War in Iraq for one made up reason after another, they are now engaged in a similar campaign against Euro. Now there is some truth to this so called "Euro Debt Crisis", but it is not at all what the right-wing fear-mongering Media has been reporting, this article will explain what is really going on in this regard and most likely what will happen to address it and what all this means for average investor.
The truth about so called "Euro Debt Crisis"
So "Euro Debt Crisis" is mainly non-sense and really just the continuation of the Con Job of Republicans, specifically the right wing Media/Cabal behind them, so that they can then say:
"US is next if we do not stop Government spending or if
we adopt European style social services such as universal
socialized health care"
However there is some truth to "Euro Debt Crisis", but it is not at all what the
US (right-wing Media) is telling you. 1st in summary the causes of this
"Euro Debt Crisis" are:
1- Near collapse of US economy in 2008, reduced growth world wide and for those
smaller economies that were dependent on growth to service their Bond interest payments, these payments became harder to make.
2- Euro being a very strong currency has put a straight jacket on the weaker economies, such as Greece, who cannot devalue their own currencies, and thus grow their way out of their Bond payments this way.
So "Euro Debt Crisis" is more a problem of Euro being a currency of a Union that is not backed by a single Fiscal policy.
Euro is a deeply flawed currency but still beating the pants off US Dollar!
So Amongst all doom reporting from US Media, about "Euro Debt crisis" there is one truth:
Euro is a deeply flawed currency.
Because Euro is currency of a monetary Union with no Fiscal Union. This means
countries that use Euro have different Tax rates, Bond rates, etc. serious lack of monetary Union. This is really crazy when you think about, this means that for example Greece would have to borrow at 8% whereas Germany can issue Bonds at 2%, or Greece has 30% Tax on income over 250K, whereas Germany has 50% and collects it.
With above FACT stated, here is another FACT, a deeply flawed currency Euro is beating US Dollar, given that Euro has GAINED a MIGHTY % against US$ since its introduction in 2000 at 1 to 1 to US$. This is really BEST proof of the fundamental problems of US economy, which are:
1- Lack of something as essential as universal socialized health care, something that would give health care to all Americans while cut health care costs by 50%
2- Our Taxes wasted on One War after another and a Gargantuan Military
3- Plus lack of other social services, such as the fact that in Germany, France, etc. European country you can go to college pretty much for free, free for the Taxes that you pay through your life, whereas same college education in US will cost you an INSANE amount of $100,000 and more, thus saddling you with Debt for years to come even if you get a good Job and God help you if you do not, thus retarding your economic growth and enjoyment of life.
So just think how screwed up USA is, that a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, the currency of a Union that supposedly is having a "Debt Crisis", is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.
This is really the best indication of how fundamentally screwed up USA has been
and continues to be. After all how screwed up can you be that it is 2012 and US does not have something as essential for the functioning of a Modern economy as universal socialized health care (NHS), something that the ENTIRE developed World has, something that the Conservative parties, repeat the Conservative parties, in UK, Canada, Israel, etc. 100% support. And why Conservative parties in entire developed World are 100% for their NHS, it is because in countries that have not-for-profit Government run NHS, health care is taking on average 9% of GDP while in US with Wall Street run for profit health care, 50Mill+ have NO health care, 2Mill+ go bankrupt each year due to health care costs, and health care is taking a DEFICIT busting 18% of GDP.
It gets worst for USA
So here is what tells the World that even a currency as flawed as Euro is better than US Dollar. Because one major party in US, the Republicans are such
lunatics, to actually oppose such sensible socialized services as universal socialized health care (NHS), or socialized college education, etc. as they have in UK, Canada, Israel, Germany, France, Japan, China, etc.
And the other party, although talked about it, they actually never even proposed NHS, set aside pass NHS. And vast part of US Media are such enemy of American people, that they report non-stop lies and lies in opposing NHS and other necessary socialized services, such as they print in their US version, but not their European or Canadian versions, that European, Canadian, etc. are dying waiting in line to get health care because of their socialized health care. Which of course as a European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. citizen with NHS in your country you know to be a total lie and that is again why US Media outlets do not write the same in their European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. versions.
How about S&P downgrades Euro banks
No one in Europe gives a SQUAT anymore about what US firms or Media says. After all a country that is so miserable, because it is mislead by its Media, to have as one of its main parties the Republican lunatics, and as its main Media sources such lying right-wing machines as Talkradio, Fox news, Wall Street Journal, which party and so called News sources are about one Con Job after another, who for example say to anything that is for benefit the American people at the expense of the Wall Street gang, such as having universal socialized health care (NHS) so that all Americans will have health care while health care would cost 50% LESS: "Socialist Socialism Socialist Socialism" when one of their favorite organizations is the US Military which is a 100% Socialized entity,
then a country this miserable, this mislead by its most powerful institutions, has nothing to say that anyone cares about.
And again that is why a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.
What about Greece going bankrupt?
1st, If you were in Greece now you will see that all this doom & gloom talk about Greece is mainly non-sense. As typical restaurants, clubs, beaches, etc. are packed until wee hours of the morning, etc. indication of how Greek are having a great life. So does Greece have some problem, yes they do and it is what Greek called "fakeleki", which basically means a systemic problem of bribing under table, you could actually think of it as rampant capitalism.
So these non-stop negative reporting about Greece "debt crisis.." by US Media is meant to enable the Republican lunatics to then say, See:
"US is next if we do not stop Government spending..."
or
"Socialism only works until you run out of other people's money to squander..."
etc. Psycho babble
Demonstrating yet again the Con Job Republicans & right-wing Media are playing on American people, FOR:
1- Germany, Norway, etc. European countries whom have lil Debt and much LOWER Un-Employment, compared to US, have much more of a "Socialism" based economies than Greece.
2- In fact main reason behind Greece's debt is that it has not been enough of a "Socialism" based country as other European countries are. To be exact this means that Greece has NOT been collecting Taxes as other European countries do. Although there are other problems specific to Greece, they range from what they call "Fakeleki" to Euro being too strong compared to competing tourist destinations such as Turkey or Bulgaria.
All of which points you can see proven by Euro being a MUCH More valuable than US Dollar. Or by the FACT that while most US Auto makers went bankrupt NOT 1 European Auto maker went bankrupt, etc. Or by the fact that when the real Rich in US, such as Murdoch of Fixed news & Wall Street Journal (LIES), wants to buy a Vila or vacation he goes to Europe and would not be caught dead in US States that Vote Republicans such as Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc.
More about what is really going on in Greece and why European economies will continue to MUCH better than US: http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=39732
What about EU leaders failed December meeting?
Once EU leaders, less UK, decide they are going to finally address the deeply flawed aspects of Euro, which is that it is a currency of a Union that does not have the same fiscal policy, which is insane to put it mildly. After all how in Gods name are the Greek to have same currency as Germany when they have to issue Bonds at 8% to finance their operation when Germany can issue Bonds at 2%! So once EU leaders agree to create a fiscal Union, much like US has, then the deep flaws of the EU will be removed and only thing that will remain are the fundamental problems of US economy, which problems Republican champion and Obama Admin did not address at all!
So here is KILLER FACT you need to realize, should EU address the deep flaws of Euro, then US Dollar will be TOAST vs Euro. That is Euro has gained a MIGHTY % against US$ with its current deep flaws, imagine what will happen after these flaws are addressed! You could then see Eur/USD at 2 which for example means Gas costing Americans $6 per Gallon.
Wont UK block the EU Fiscal Union?
Europeans for long have realized that certain elements in UK wants the EU project to fail, or hobble along, so more and more what UK says matters less and less to the EU leaders. In fact the Veto of Dave Cameron, in late Dec 2011 of the steps toward EU Fiscal Union, made the EU leaders to realize that goals of UK still lay in making sure that a true European Union does not come into play, which Union as per the dream of Napoleon and others in Europe, will in time render UK as the back water of Europe. After all, EU economy is TEN times the size of UK economy.
But in fact, what is more likely, is that UK in time, either under Cameron that vetoed the last EU Fiscal Union proposal, or under a new leader, will support the EU Fiscal Union proposal because more and more UK leaders realize that they cannot anchor their economic future to US given the fact that US is suffering from Republican lunatics and the right-wing Media/Cabal that makes them possible, and as a result US has fundamental problems, with no sign that these problems will be fixed soon.
If we have Universal Nationalized health care we will go bankrupt like Europeans
One of most amazing, but typical, of the Republican and right-wing Media Con Job about the so called "Euro Debt crisis" is that then they will then say, see:
The answer to which amazing non-sense is:
1- It is not just the Europeans that have NHS, the entire developed World has NHS, from Canada, to Japan, to Australia, including their beloved Israel.
2- If Europeans were not operating health care on Socialized basis, aka NHS, then their Debt would be much higher. Given the fact that in countries that have NHS, health care is taking on avg about 9% of GDP, whereas in US with no NHS and instead Wall Street run health care, where an astonishing 50Mill+ have NO health care, health care is taking a DEFICIT BUSTING 18% of GDP. So because Europeans have NHS, their spending on health care is reduced by $1-Trillion per year. And that is one of reasons why even though Euro is a deeply flawed currency, it is still beating the US Dollar.
So what will happen?
For Europeans to address the so called "Euro Debt crisis", which again means that certain weaker European countries cannot be in Euro and at the same time pay much higher interest rates on their Bonds than others. there are a few solutions:
1- Euro needs to drop much in value against US Dollar and other major currencies, so that the weaker economies like Greece can than compete against surrounding countries such as Turkey which have much lower priced currencies to Euro.
2- EU members need to create a much tighter fiscal Union, they need to create something tantamount to US Federal Reserve and a central Taxing authority, so that that the Taxes in Greece are same as in Germany and paid to a central authority. Which central authority, in ECB, then would issue and back a Euro Bond so that all EU members would have the same interest rates.
But what you can bet on, is that since EU Governments work for their people (aka main street), that they will make the right decision and will come out even stronger.
What is the worst that can happen?
As further indication of what a rightwing fear-mongering Media, US Media is consider that 1000s of stories have appearing in US Media asking: "What is the worst that can happen" with the Euro Debt crisis! In regard to this so called question:
1st, Again "Euro Debt crisis" simply means high Bond rates for certain weaker EU eoconomies. The worst of which that can happen is that these countries will default on their Bond payments, which means (mostly) rich Bankers will get a hair cut on their Bonds. So just as when Argentina defaulted on its debt meant squat for avg person and in fact as a result of this default Argentine economy did great a few years later, same will happen in EU should Greece default on their Bonds.
2nd, Because Europeans Governments are run by their people for their people (aka Main Street) then EU will do the right thing to avoid the worst and result in the best, contrast to US where Government is run by the rightwing Cabal via their puppet Republicans and many Dems too and thus the worst indeed keeps happening.
So here is what you can Bank ON:
US Dollar & economy will NEVER EVER be as valuable as Euro since Europeans are not suffering from Republican lunatics, HOAX Democrats and above all a right-wing Media/Cabal armed with 100s of Billions of Dollars waging War on them, as this Cabal is waging war on American people.
As a result Europeans have fundamental advantages over US, which simply means Europeans get much more value for their Taxes, due to operating a sensibly more of their economy on Socialized basis and not just Military, Police, etc. on Socialized basis as in US. Such as for example ALL Europeans, like all other developed nations, have Universal health care (NHS) as a result of which while ALL Europeans have health care, they spend 50% LESS, NOT MORE, LESS, on health care than US which does not have something as necessary as socialized health care! And also Europeans can go to college for nearly FREE, for Taxes they pay, as a result of which core of Europe (aka Middle class) is getting richer while core of US is getting poorer.
Reproduzido de The Real News Post http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=55156&PHPSESSID=cbjvt1k9lvlgg5pjqd7hv3mh15
The truth about so called "Euro Debt Crisis"
So "Euro Debt Crisis" is mainly non-sense and really just the continuation of the Con Job of Republicans, specifically the right wing Media/Cabal behind them, so that they can then say:
"US is next if we do not stop Government spending or if
we adopt European style social services such as universal
socialized health care"
However there is some truth to "Euro Debt Crisis", but it is not at all what the
US (right-wing Media) is telling you. 1st in summary the causes of this
"Euro Debt Crisis" are:
1- Near collapse of US economy in 2008, reduced growth world wide and for those
smaller economies that were dependent on growth to service their Bond interest payments, these payments became harder to make.
2- Euro being a very strong currency has put a straight jacket on the weaker economies, such as Greece, who cannot devalue their own currencies, and thus grow their way out of their Bond payments this way.
So "Euro Debt Crisis" is more a problem of Euro being a currency of a Union that is not backed by a single Fiscal policy.
Euro is a deeply flawed currency but still beating the pants off US Dollar!
So Amongst all doom reporting from US Media, about "Euro Debt crisis" there is one truth:
Euro is a deeply flawed currency.
Because Euro is currency of a monetary Union with no Fiscal Union. This means
countries that use Euro have different Tax rates, Bond rates, etc. serious lack of monetary Union. This is really crazy when you think about, this means that for example Greece would have to borrow at 8% whereas Germany can issue Bonds at 2%, or Greece has 30% Tax on income over 250K, whereas Germany has 50% and collects it.
With above FACT stated, here is another FACT, a deeply flawed currency Euro is beating US Dollar, given that Euro has GAINED a MIGHTY % against US$ since its introduction in 2000 at 1 to 1 to US$. This is really BEST proof of the fundamental problems of US economy, which are:
1- Lack of something as essential as universal socialized health care, something that would give health care to all Americans while cut health care costs by 50%
2- Our Taxes wasted on One War after another and a Gargantuan Military
3- Plus lack of other social services, such as the fact that in Germany, France, etc. European country you can go to college pretty much for free, free for the Taxes that you pay through your life, whereas same college education in US will cost you an INSANE amount of $100,000 and more, thus saddling you with Debt for years to come even if you get a good Job and God help you if you do not, thus retarding your economic growth and enjoyment of life.
So just think how screwed up USA is, that a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, the currency of a Union that supposedly is having a "Debt Crisis", is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.
This is really the best indication of how fundamentally screwed up USA has been
and continues to be. After all how screwed up can you be that it is 2012 and US does not have something as essential for the functioning of a Modern economy as universal socialized health care (NHS), something that the ENTIRE developed World has, something that the Conservative parties, repeat the Conservative parties, in UK, Canada, Israel, etc. 100% support. And why Conservative parties in entire developed World are 100% for their NHS, it is because in countries that have not-for-profit Government run NHS, health care is taking on average 9% of GDP while in US with Wall Street run for profit health care, 50Mill+ have NO health care, 2Mill+ go bankrupt each year due to health care costs, and health care is taking a DEFICIT busting 18% of GDP.
It gets worst for USA
So here is what tells the World that even a currency as flawed as Euro is better than US Dollar. Because one major party in US, the Republicans are such
lunatics, to actually oppose such sensible socialized services as universal socialized health care (NHS), or socialized college education, etc. as they have in UK, Canada, Israel, Germany, France, Japan, China, etc.
And the other party, although talked about it, they actually never even proposed NHS, set aside pass NHS. And vast part of US Media are such enemy of American people, that they report non-stop lies and lies in opposing NHS and other necessary socialized services, such as they print in their US version, but not their European or Canadian versions, that European, Canadian, etc. are dying waiting in line to get health care because of their socialized health care. Which of course as a European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. citizen with NHS in your country you know to be a total lie and that is again why US Media outlets do not write the same in their European, Canadian, Japanese, etc. versions.
How about S&P downgrades Euro banks
No one in Europe gives a SQUAT anymore about what US firms or Media says. After all a country that is so miserable, because it is mislead by its Media, to have as one of its main parties the Republican lunatics, and as its main Media sources such lying right-wing machines as Talkradio, Fox news, Wall Street Journal, which party and so called News sources are about one Con Job after another, who for example say to anything that is for benefit the American people at the expense of the Wall Street gang, such as having universal socialized health care (NHS) so that all Americans will have health care while health care would cost 50% LESS: "Socialist Socialism Socialist Socialism" when one of their favorite organizations is the US Military which is a 100% Socialized entity,
then a country this miserable, this mislead by its most powerful institutions, has nothing to say that anyone cares about.
And again that is why a deeply flawed currency such as Euro, is still beating the pants off the US Dollar.
What about Greece going bankrupt?
1st, If you were in Greece now you will see that all this doom & gloom talk about Greece is mainly non-sense. As typical restaurants, clubs, beaches, etc. are packed until wee hours of the morning, etc. indication of how Greek are having a great life. So does Greece have some problem, yes they do and it is what Greek called "fakeleki", which basically means a systemic problem of bribing under table, you could actually think of it as rampant capitalism.
So these non-stop negative reporting about Greece "debt crisis.." by US Media is meant to enable the Republican lunatics to then say, See:
"US is next if we do not stop Government spending..."
or
"Socialism only works until you run out of other people's money to squander..."
etc. Psycho babble
Demonstrating yet again the Con Job Republicans & right-wing Media are playing on American people, FOR:
1- Germany, Norway, etc. European countries whom have lil Debt and much LOWER Un-Employment, compared to US, have much more of a "Socialism" based economies than Greece.
2- In fact main reason behind Greece's debt is that it has not been enough of a "Socialism" based country as other European countries are. To be exact this means that Greece has NOT been collecting Taxes as other European countries do. Although there are other problems specific to Greece, they range from what they call "Fakeleki" to Euro being too strong compared to competing tourist destinations such as Turkey or Bulgaria.
All of which points you can see proven by Euro being a MUCH More valuable than US Dollar. Or by the FACT that while most US Auto makers went bankrupt NOT 1 European Auto maker went bankrupt, etc. Or by the fact that when the real Rich in US, such as Murdoch of Fixed news & Wall Street Journal (LIES), wants to buy a Vila or vacation he goes to Europe and would not be caught dead in US States that Vote Republicans such as Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc.
More about what is really going on in Greece and why European economies will continue to MUCH better than US: http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=39732
What about EU leaders failed December meeting?
Once EU leaders, less UK, decide they are going to finally address the deeply flawed aspects of Euro, which is that it is a currency of a Union that does not have the same fiscal policy, which is insane to put it mildly. After all how in Gods name are the Greek to have same currency as Germany when they have to issue Bonds at 8% to finance their operation when Germany can issue Bonds at 2%! So once EU leaders agree to create a fiscal Union, much like US has, then the deep flaws of the EU will be removed and only thing that will remain are the fundamental problems of US economy, which problems Republican champion and Obama Admin did not address at all!
So here is KILLER FACT you need to realize, should EU address the deep flaws of Euro, then US Dollar will be TOAST vs Euro. That is Euro has gained a MIGHTY % against US$ with its current deep flaws, imagine what will happen after these flaws are addressed! You could then see Eur/USD at 2 which for example means Gas costing Americans $6 per Gallon.
Wont UK block the EU Fiscal Union?
Europeans for long have realized that certain elements in UK wants the EU project to fail, or hobble along, so more and more what UK says matters less and less to the EU leaders. In fact the Veto of Dave Cameron, in late Dec 2011 of the steps toward EU Fiscal Union, made the EU leaders to realize that goals of UK still lay in making sure that a true European Union does not come into play, which Union as per the dream of Napoleon and others in Europe, will in time render UK as the back water of Europe. After all, EU economy is TEN times the size of UK economy.
But in fact, what is more likely, is that UK in time, either under Cameron that vetoed the last EU Fiscal Union proposal, or under a new leader, will support the EU Fiscal Union proposal because more and more UK leaders realize that they cannot anchor their economic future to US given the fact that US is suffering from Republican lunatics and the right-wing Media/Cabal that makes them possible, and as a result US has fundamental problems, with no sign that these problems will be fixed soon.
If we have Universal Nationalized health care we will go bankrupt like Europeans
One of most amazing, but typical, of the Republican and right-wing Media Con Job about the so called "Euro Debt crisis" is that then they will then say, see:
If we have Universal Nationalized health care (NHS)
like Europeans we will go bankrupt like Europeans"
like Europeans we will go bankrupt like Europeans"
The answer to which amazing non-sense is:
1- It is not just the Europeans that have NHS, the entire developed World has NHS, from Canada, to Japan, to Australia, including their beloved Israel.
2- If Europeans were not operating health care on Socialized basis, aka NHS, then their Debt would be much higher. Given the fact that in countries that have NHS, health care is taking on avg about 9% of GDP, whereas in US with no NHS and instead Wall Street run health care, where an astonishing 50Mill+ have NO health care, health care is taking a DEFICIT BUSTING 18% of GDP. So because Europeans have NHS, their spending on health care is reduced by $1-Trillion per year. And that is one of reasons why even though Euro is a deeply flawed currency, it is still beating the US Dollar.
So what will happen?
For Europeans to address the so called "Euro Debt crisis", which again means that certain weaker European countries cannot be in Euro and at the same time pay much higher interest rates on their Bonds than others. there are a few solutions:
1- Euro needs to drop much in value against US Dollar and other major currencies, so that the weaker economies like Greece can than compete against surrounding countries such as Turkey which have much lower priced currencies to Euro.
2- EU members need to create a much tighter fiscal Union, they need to create something tantamount to US Federal Reserve and a central Taxing authority, so that that the Taxes in Greece are same as in Germany and paid to a central authority. Which central authority, in ECB, then would issue and back a Euro Bond so that all EU members would have the same interest rates.
But what you can bet on, is that since EU Governments work for their people (aka main street), that they will make the right decision and will come out even stronger.
What is the worst that can happen?
As further indication of what a rightwing fear-mongering Media, US Media is consider that 1000s of stories have appearing in US Media asking: "What is the worst that can happen" with the Euro Debt crisis! In regard to this so called question:
1st, Again "Euro Debt crisis" simply means high Bond rates for certain weaker EU eoconomies. The worst of which that can happen is that these countries will default on their Bond payments, which means (mostly) rich Bankers will get a hair cut on their Bonds. So just as when Argentina defaulted on its debt meant squat for avg person and in fact as a result of this default Argentine economy did great a few years later, same will happen in EU should Greece default on their Bonds.
2nd, Because Europeans Governments are run by their people for their people (aka Main Street) then EU will do the right thing to avoid the worst and result in the best, contrast to US where Government is run by the rightwing Cabal via their puppet Republicans and many Dems too and thus the worst indeed keeps happening.
So here is what you can Bank ON:
US Dollar & economy will NEVER EVER be as valuable as Euro since Europeans are not suffering from Republican lunatics, HOAX Democrats and above all a right-wing Media/Cabal armed with 100s of Billions of Dollars waging War on them, as this Cabal is waging war on American people.
As a result Europeans have fundamental advantages over US, which simply means Europeans get much more value for their Taxes, due to operating a sensibly more of their economy on Socialized basis and not just Military, Police, etc. on Socialized basis as in US. Such as for example ALL Europeans, like all other developed nations, have Universal health care (NHS) as a result of which while ALL Europeans have health care, they spend 50% LESS, NOT MORE, LESS, on health care than US which does not have something as necessary as socialized health care! And also Europeans can go to college for nearly FREE, for Taxes they pay, as a result of which core of Europe (aka Middle class) is getting richer while core of US is getting poorer.
Reproduzido de The Real News Post http://www.realnewspost.com/sa.php?a=55156&PHPSESSID=cbjvt1k9lvlgg5pjqd7hv3mh15
Guerra contra o Euro (IV) - Relatório secreto da Goldman Sachs
Eurozone Collapse And How To Profit From It
Michele Lin
8 September 2011
On the 16th of August, Goldman Sachs
released a report, State of the Markets – Long and Short Risk
Strategies, that is currently making its way around the Internet.
Originally intended as a private report for its institutional clients – hedge
funds that is – a copy was leaked to the Wall Street Journal who was also the
first media outlet to break the news.
Though the international mainstream media has been largely
silent, the Goldman report has been causing quite a stir with the online
community.
The author, Alan Brazil, a key Goldman strategist who sits on
the firm’s trading desk, made three major calls about the state of global
markets.
One, that China’s growth is unsustainable, and secondly,
the U.S. economy is still languishing and small businesses that have
traditionally been the key drivers of jobcreation were
still fighting to stay afloat. Finally, Mr. Brazil declares that European bank
funding requirements may be substantial compared to their sovereign capacity,
estimating that close to US$1 trillion in capital may be needed to shore up
European banks.
In Mr. Brazil’s pessimistic report, he also provides various
charts and figures, detailing the numbers surrounding European financial
institutions and expounds upon the depth of the problems in Europe, the U.S.
and China. In particular, he spells out in detail the borrowing by 77 European
financial institutions, identifying some that are highly leveraged.
Yet, such gloom and doom reports are nothing the markets have not heard of. The financial markets have been moving erratically, reacting sharply each time a negative data report is released – a key sign that investors are paranoid, jittery and staring out into an uncertain future for the world economy.
Economists and governments have also been sounding out the same worries for quite some time.
So why is there so much chatter surrounding the latest report by Goldman Sachs?
To be fair, Goldman Sachs does not have the best track record in methods of profiteering. In 2009, theRolling Stone magazine published an extensive and scathing article about Goldman Sachs, The Great American Bubble Machine, documenting the numerous instances and ways in which Goldman manipulated markets for their own corporate gains.
“From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they’re about to do it again.”
“If American is now circling the drain, Goldman Sachs has found a way to be that drain.”
“Goldman scammed housing investors by betting against its own crappy mortgages.”
“Goldman turned a sleepy oil market into a giant betting parlor – spiking prices at the pump. Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone July 9th, 2009
In the aforementioned report by Goldman, Mr. Brazil suggests ideas for trading on the downward analysis; A fancy option play the offers a way to take a bearish bet through an index of insurance contracts on the credit of European financial stocks.
“Goldman sometimes took the bearish end of such trades even as it was selling the bullish end to clients.” The Wall Street Journal,September 1, 2011
Perhaps, it is because the painful reminiscences from the 2008/09 financial crisis are still deeply etched in the memories of many, causing the burst of dissonance within the online community.
However, there is perhaps a worthy takeaway from this contentious Goldman report.
Moving beyond the fuss, a pertinent question to ask is: Given the position Goldman Sachs is advocating, should we prepare for the euro’s breakup?
Many have been quick to jump into the popular rhetoric surrounding the possibility of a euro breakup. But such arguments often miscalculate the consequences and the political, social, and economic costs involved. Many who advocate a euro breakup also fail to account for the legality of such propositions.
Constitutionally, the Treaty of Lisbon addresses the issue of withdrawal by a European Union (hereafter, EU) Member State in its Article 50.
Article 50 explicitly states that a member state is able to negotiate an exit from the EU, though it fails to provide details about execution. Most importantly, however, Article 50 provides a legal framework for a Member to leave the EU, but not to leave the European Monetary Union (hereafter, EMU).
An appropriate remedy here would require an amendment of The Treaty of Maastricht. Yet, constitutional changes governing the EU and the EMU calls for unanimous consent from all 27 EU Member States.
Assuming all legal obstacles were out of the way, there is also a need to account for the high costs involved should the euro breakup.
Just two days ago, UBS published a paper on the euro, and quantified the economic costs at stake should a country like Germany leave the Euro:
“Were a stronger country such as Germany leave the euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalization of the banking and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around €6,000 to €8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of €3,500 to €4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over €1,000 per person, in a single hit.”
UBS, 6th September 2011
The same report goes on to say that “the economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a breakup. Fragmentation of the euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that also no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government.
The problem with the euro is that it was promoted (to the general public) as an instrument towards foreign exchange integration. What was not acknowledged initially was the immense difficulty in achieving fiscal integration, or at least fiscal coordination, between member countries with distinctly different economic repertoires.
“I am sure
the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments.
It is politically impossible to introduce that now. But some day there will be
a crisis and new instruments will be created - ”Romano Prodi.
While many may not like what the
Goldman Sachs report had to say, it is nevertheless time to rethink the outlook
for the euro and the European Monetary Union.
Guerra contra o Euro (III) - O inevitável colapso do Dólar
Ilustração: domínio público
The
Inevitable Collapse of the Dollar
November 16th, 2009 
by
Len Hart, The Existentialist Cowboy
Americans live beyond
their means, Asia finances it and China props up the buck so that the US can
buy Chinese made stuff at Wal-Mart. Eventually the Asians/Europeans will stop
financing the USA, China will pull the plug on the buck and the bubble will
burst.
The CIA's World Fact Book lists
the US at the very bottom of a list with the world's largest negative Current
Account Balance. China, which pegs the Yuan to the dollar, is at the top with
the world's largest positive Current Account Balance.
If the GOP had been
correct, US exports should have risen! The 'balance of trade deficit' i.e, the
NEGATIVE Current Account Balance would have been reduced! If the GOP had been
correct, the US could have paid off huge amounts of national debt run up in
incompetent and dishonest GOP regimes. The US might have survived decades of
conservative budgets which forced the US to borrow from other countries. But
--not surprisingly --things have not worked out as the GOP would have you
believe.
Many
economists, myself included, believe that China’s asset-buying spree helped
inflate the housing bubble, setting the stage for the global financial crisis.
But China’s insistence on keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, even when the
dollar declines, may be doing even more harm now.
Although there has been a lot of doomsaying about the falling dollar, that
decline is actually both natural and desirable. America needs a weaker dollar
to help reduce its trade deficit, and it’s getting that weaker dollar as
nervous investors, who flocked into the presumed safety of U.S. debt at the
peak of the crisis, have started putting their money to work elsewhere.
But China has been keeping its currency pegged to the dollar — which means that
a country with a huge trade surplus and a rapidly recovering economy, a country
whose currency should be rising in value, is in effect engineering a large
devaluation instead.
It was hoped that by
taking the dollar off the gold standard, US products would enjoy greater sales
abroad. But like 'trickle down theory', it just has not worked out as planned.
The CIA's World Fact Book proves it.
The
enormous scale of foreign borrowing and money creation necessary to finance
Washington’s wars are sending the dollar to historic lows. The dollar has even
experienced large declines relative to currencies of third world countries such
as Botswana and Brazil. The decline in the dollar’s value reduces the
purchasing power of Americans’ already declining incomes.
Despite the lowest level of housing starts in 64 years, the US housing market
is flooded with unsold homes, and financial institutions have a huge and rising
inventory of foreclosed homes not yet on the market.
Industrial production has collapsed to the level of 1999, wiping out a decade
of growth in industrial output.
If the US is a 'failed
state', it is because it has been impoverished by at least two trends: 1) the
transfer of US wealth upward to just one percent of the US population which now
owns more than 95 percent of the rest of the nation combined; 2) the decline of
the US dollar, a trend begun when Richard Nixon eschewed the Bretton-Woods
agreement.
Reducing the chances
that we will weather this crisis are US wars of aggression which benefit only the
defense contractors. Wars, in fact, reduce the GDP, destroy jobs, reduce
productivity, and increase the trade deficit! If wars are so 'bad' for the
economy, then how are they sold so easily? Why are they 'sold' at all? The
quick response: they are sold with focus group tested bullshit!
There's a 'living' in
killing, we are told! It's a lie -- snake oil for idiots and rank and file GOP.
That wars are good for the economy is just a bald-faced lie cooked up by the
defense lobby for whom killing IS a living but only for the shrinking one
percent who benefit: the Military/Industrial complex.
In
fact, most models show that military spending diverts resources from productive
uses, such as consumption and investment, and ultimately slows economic growth
and reduces employment. In this way, military spending is comparable in most
models to any other form of government spending, such as spending on public
goods or improving the environment.
This paper shows the projections of the impact of an increase in annual military
spending equal to 1 percent of GDP (approximately the actual increase in
spending compared with the pre-war budget) of the Global Insight macroeconomic
model (see Appendix). The Global Insight model was selected for this analysis
because it is a commonly used and widely respected model.1 Other models will
show somewhat different projections, but it is unlikely that the direction of
the long-term impact on any of the key variables will be different. In fact,
because of the structure of the Global Insights model, it likely understates
the negative impact of military spending relative to other models.
The Inevitable Collapse of the Dollar
Americans are living beyond their means and Asia is currently financing that.
But eventually the Asians/Europeans will stop financing the USA and then the
bubble will burst.
Reproduzido de
Guerra contra o Euro (II) - O endividamento dos EUA
Ilustrações: domínio público
America’s
Unsustainable Debt Crisis
By David Milstein, AFP New Jersey Policy Analyst
The greatest threat
to future American prosperity is the debt and deficits that continue to shackle
the largest economy in the world. This year, our national deficit will be $1.65
trillion while our national debt is currently $14.3 trillion. The debt comes
out to more than $46,000 for every man, woman and child in America. In just
four years, the Democrat controlled Congress spent more money than every
previous Congress combined, putting their out of control spending on the tab of
future generations.
In the last two
years, President Obama has warned us about our growing debt yet his rhetoric is
never followed by any serious action. In his first two budgets, there was a 24%
increase in federal discretionary spending. Including the “stimulus” package,
discretionary spending jumped 84% since Obama took office. In response to his
spending binge, the President offered to cut merely $6 billion in his new
budget for 2011, which is less than 1% of our national debt.
When Republicans took
over the House in January, they offered their own plan to cut $61 billion,
which is ten times what the President proposed. But $61 billion is a drop in
the bucket. Not surprisingly, the Republican proposal failed to pass the
Democrat controlled Senate.
Just last month, the
US recorded its largest monthly budget deficit of $223 billion, a 14% increase
from just a short year ago. And by the end of the year, our national debt will
exceed our gross domestic product. Yes, you read that correctly. Since
President Obama’s own budget predicts our national debt will be $15.5 trillion
by the end of the year and our GDP is about $14.6 trillion, America will soon
have more than a 100% debt to GDP ratio. By 2030, the Congressional Budget
Office predicts the debt will be double the entire US economy. America hasn’t
charged this amount of money on its credit cards since World War II, when our
debt as a percentage of our GDP was an astounding 108.6%.
Simply put, we are
living beyond our means. We continue to spend money we do not have and our
dependence on foreign nations continues to grow. China is the greatest
proprietor of our national debt, holding about 10% of our public debt. This may
sound like a small percentage, but it amounts to $1.2 trillion, which is the
same as China’s national debt. If China’s state and local governments are
included, their national debt is only $3.6 trillion, which is a little less
than one-fifth the size of our national debt.
Most of their debt is
held domestically while more than half of America’s debt is held by foreign
nations. Not only are more Americans becoming more and more dependent on
government, our country is becoming more dependent on foreign nations to pay
its bills. And as the United States continues to barely have positive economic
growth, China has just overtaken Japan as the second largest economy. In the
last five years, China’s economic growth has averaged 11.2% while the US
economy has averaged only 3%. As China’s economy continues to soar, the US is
handing our economic future to our biggest competitor.
As our debt continues
to balloon, the interest alone will rise from $220 billion to $860 billion by
2020. The interest skyrockets by 400% in less than nine years. To put that in
perspective, that is roughly the size of the “stimulus” package, which President
Obama promised would keep the unemployment rate below 8%. But our unemployment
rate currently sits at 8.9% with 14 million Americans still out of work.
Every single day
America is borrowing roughly $5 billion to fund our government and we are
borrowing 40 cents out of every dollar just to stay afloat. The largest drivers
of our national debt are the entitlement programs, which the White House and
congressional Democrats refuse to address and Republicans are simply afraid to
reform. Entitlements consume 56% of total federal spending and will double by
2050. By 2052 they will make up all of our tax revenue.
On March 15th House
Republicans passed another short-term continuing resolution to fund the
government for the next three weeks. It cut $6.1 billion on a day when our
national debt increased by $72 billion. These small cuts were more than what
the Democrats were willing to cut over the next seven months.
Congress and the
White House aren’t even close to seriously addressing our fiscal disaster. It
is time our government step up and enact serious fiscal reform by cutting
spending, limiting the size of government and reforming the unsustainable
entitlement programs for our future as a prosperous nation depends upon it.
Reproduzido de
Série Especial - Guerra contra o Euro (I)
ilustrações: domínio público
Elizabeth Burgos
Si antaño “la diplomacia era la guerra por otros medios”, en la actualidad
la guerra por otros medios es monetaria y uno de sus blancos parece haber sido
el euro.
Los acontecimientos y las modificaciones institucionales que suscita cada
día la crisis económica de la eurozona y por ende afecta a la Unión Europea, y
la avalancha de opiniones que estos hechos inspiran, hace difícil, o
prácticamente imposible, opinar sobre las amenazas que se ciernen sobre el
euro, o hacerse una idea objetiva acerca del difícil momento que atraviesa
Europa en su conjunto y en cada país en particular.
Economistas, especialistas y académicos opinan, llenando las páginas de los
medios que rigen la opinión pública mundial. Unos motivados por sus
orientaciones políticas: liberales a ultranza que se identifican con la
corriente que achaca sin matices la culpa de la crisis económica al Estado de
Bienestar inspirado en la doctrina de la Social Democracia, a la cual
adhirieron tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial los Estados europeos. Otros,
que por el contrario, abogan por una economía bajo mayor control del
Estado, postura compartida hoy, tanto por sectores de la Social Democracia,
como por la derecha. Y el sector de la extrema izquierda, tan radical
como la liberal a ultranza, que aboga por un control total de la economía por
el Estado, al punto de complementarse ambas en su radicalismo.
Por supuesto, detrás de esa escenografía ideológica, y sin buscar escudarse
en el facilismo de la teoría del complot, se disimula apenas, una guerra de un
nuevo tipo que ha reemplazado las armas de fuego por las maquinarias
financieras secundadas por las agencias de calificación y poderosos bufetes de
legisladores.
Esta continuación de la guerra “con otros medios”, por supuesto no obvia
que existan causas de la crisis económica. La desindustrialización de
Francia y la baja de su productividad es un hecho. El inmenso fraude
fiscal en Grecia es otro hecho comprobado. La irresponsable política
económica del saliente gobierno español, es innegable. La debacle moral
del gobierno italiano, es notoria.
Algo positivo, sin embargo, podemos admitirle a este nuevo escenario
bélico, que demuestra un avance de la civilización: la ausencia de armas de
fuego, aunque la actitud depredadora y egoísta de la ganancia a toda costa y de
convertir lo humano en mercancía, vaya dejando miles de víctimas en el
camino, siendo el desempleo la consecuencia de este estado de hechos que
convierte a millones de seres en parias, despojándolos de toda dignidad.
La guerra está claramente enfilada contra la existencia del euro. Cada vez que la UE toma una medida destinada a lograr la supervivencia del euro y con ello la de la UE, el discurso apocalíptico sobre la ruptura de la UE y sobre el hundimiento del euro se hace más radical.
Algunos historiadores de la economía sitúan el comienzo de esta guerra
mediante técnicas financieras en el gobierno de Margaret Thatcher y de Ronald
Reagan.
Es cierto que el surgimiento de otros actores en el panorama geoestratégico
del mundo, aunado a la globalización, ha perturbado en particular a EE.UU, que
tras la caída de la URSS brilló por cierto tiempo como la única estrella del
firmamento, y el dólar como la única moneda de valor universal. Y
mientras el imperio soviético constituía un peligro para Europa, ésta era
aliada de Estados Unidos. Hoy la modificación del escenario
geoestratégico, el surgimiento de nuevos autores que le disputan la
preeminencia a EE.UU, obliga a buscar nuevos posicionamientos.
Vemos el desarrollo de un escenario bélico entre los poderes monetarios, en
donde no puede haber vencedores ni vencidos, porque todo el entramado se
desmoronaría. La meta que se persigue es el debilitamiento de los
contrincantes. Para el dólar es vital debilitar, o buscar la desaparición
del euro, pero no la caída del mercado europeo, vital para su economía lo que
le dejará el espacio libre para negociar con el yuan, su hermano siamés.
A China, no le conviene la desaparición del euro que garantiza que el dólar
siga marcando el valor universal en términos monetarios. A Rusia, le sería
fatal no poder proveer de gas a Europa occidental.
Conclusión: hay una guerra pero no puede ser una total como las de antaño.
Un gran progreso civilizatorio.
Reproduzido de
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